Monday, July 30, 2007

Balance in trading.

Recently I've been paying too much attention to the stock market, trading, and anything that is financial, I need to balance it a little bit, and continue studying spanish and chinese like I want.

Today I lost 66$ after commisions, which is ok since I only been infront of the market for 30 minutes combined, my sister came for a visit which made me happy, so I didn't have too much time to trade, I had so many missed opportunities, and when I was finally +80$ on the day after starting it in a -100$ loss, I managed to take few wrong calls and lose the profits, then I decided to stop the trading day and go eat dinner (at 22:40 israel time which is 15:40 USEAST time).

After last week, and today, I really believe that making money in the markets is easy when you follow your plan, as I said I'm going to reward myself each day I follow my plan, and not each day I make money, because sometimes (rarely) it's inevitable to lose.

Saturday, July 28, 2007

Great week!

Had a busy weekend so I couldn't post about thursday and friday, but here goes.. Thursday I closed +165$ after commissions, and friday +114$, I really starting to get the hang of day trading, and I'd like to talk about the most important thing about trading.

Self discipline, this is the most important trait in day trading, without it you are lost, I've lost a lot of money in the last few week, sometimes 2K$ a day, but I still had faith, which led me to better understanding of what I am doing, I saw that whenever I stop the trading day, and paper trade, no emotions involved, I "make money", even if it's on paper, it convinced me that money can be made from the markets, it's just that I have to discover what in myself is not letting me grab it.

This week had been great since I traded only on signals, and not on "2 minutes scalp" that just got me losing money, I only did what my method had told me, except on monday when I lost 90$, which is not too bad since after losing that money I saw that keeping my way would have got me winning money, so to make stuff simple, discipline discipline discipline, this is the most important trait, if you can wait for the right moves, and just enter with speed and power, you can make a lot of money.

I noticed that most of this week I traded for about an hour, and still managed to make 1-2% on my account, which means that heavily overtrading is not recommended, when you can just wait for the 5-15 minute moves that just makes the day like in my last posts.

Friday, July 27, 2007

How I trade Futures

This is how I trade Futures, I've got fairly simple rules, and when I keep them I make money on the long run, I'd like to share the rules with the world, and if anyone will follow them, he will make money.

Money management:

This rules will keep you alive in the markets on the long run, and they are probably going to save you from having a heavy loss.

1. Risk only 1% of your account each day, once you got to that point of losing a percent, leave the computer, don't let your emotions take over.

2. Trade only 1 contract per each 11K$ in your account, if you trade more than that you will make money faster, but when you lose, you'll finish the day after 1 losing trade, which is bad statistics and the odds are against you to make money right on the first trade of the day.

3. Always move your stop loss in the direction of your trade, never against it.

4. Finish a day after making 2%, or if you traded a lot that day and you are going to pay a lot of commissions, just finish the day either in a minimum amount of profit, or with your daily risk money (%1 max!)

Technical analysis:

1. Enter on simple situations, like channel breakout, support break, or riding the trend the market is currently at, I find that what works most of the times is watching the 15 minutes chart for a channel (longer time frame trend) that is broken, usually after it breaks the market surge in the other direction.





2. Time frames setup - Look at the daily for long term trend, then on 3 days 60min chart for possible support and resistance levels, 15 minutes chart for the current trend, and 5 minutes chart for your entry, always look for confirmation that what you are doing is right in all of the time frames.

3. Pivot points and support and resistance - The experts are looking at it, so you must do it too, whenever you get close to one of those levels, scale out of the trade a little to minimize risk, usually the futures will get stuck in those levels, but once it breaks it, you can buy or short for a nice and FAST profits.

4. Exit method, stop loss at -10 points, profit taking is on the usual break of a trend, and when you are at 10 points profit, higher your stop loss to +5, this keeps you away from a side going market.

A little disclaimer - I'm not recommending anyone trading with his money, I do not offer trading advise , I merely here to post my progress, my technique, and the way I trade, in order to learn to do it better.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Getting control again.

Two days have past since my "Things could be better" post, and I finally gain self control again, and starting to be more disciplined, today I was one point down 105$ (two losing trades in the beginning of the day), I kept following my rules, and got out of the day +160$ after commissions, on 5 trades.

Today I went to the gym after work (11:00 am US eastern time but in Israel it's in the evening), and just said to myself that I have to do all of the exercise, even the ones I don't like and usually skip after doing few sets, this time I did it all, and whenever I thought "I wonder what the market is doing now" I just completely ignored it and wasn't in a rush to get back home and trade, I was down 50$ since the first trade I took from work (remote control hehe), the trade was done following my plan, and just didn't work, so in my mind I had that -50$ on the day, but I got used to ignoring that, telling myself "sometimes you win, sometimes you lose".

When I got back home as I said, I was disciplined, and finished the day profitable after no more than 45 minutes, the best trade itself (which you'll see in a minute) took me only 5 minutes and 21 seconds, and gain me 45 points on YM which roughly translate to 225$ on one YM contract.

Today I finally realized the power of sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a familiar pattern to emerge, it's million times more powerful than second guessing where the market will go in the next 20 seconds (we call it scalping).

I've decided to reward myself for following my plan, and not on money returns, which means I put discipline higher than "making money", each day I follow my trading plan, and quitting in the right time (like today after doing my daily profit), I will give myself a nice reward, today it was some nice chocolate, yesterday it was toffife, I know that my method works, and now my mind come togather with the method, so I start making money.

Best trade of the day:

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Disciplined day.

I'm finally start trading saint now, instead of walking in the dark like I did, I'm up 218$ after commissions today on futures.

Today all of the trades were as planned, I got 50 points from the market today, and then just left the computer as is, I "could" have gotten more points out of this bearish market today but I set myself a law, not to overtrade and just leave the computer after I gain enough, so I just followed my plan with discipline.

I traded for one and a half hours which is not too time consuming.

Best Trade of the day:

Overall statistics on today:
8 Trades at all, 2 of them have been a losers, which means 75% profitable trades on today,worst trade lost me 12 points on the stop market order(my stop is usually 10 points), and best trade gave me 45 points.

Monday, July 23, 2007

Things could be better.

I didn't post in the past few days, but I finally got the feeling of trading again, and lost the rush of andrenaline, or addiction, whatever you call that feeling of being hooked to the screen, hoping your "trade", which is more like gamble when it comes without indicators system or method, praying you will earn some money..
Eyes unfold now, I'm in trouble, finally I see how bad I've been doing, while still hoping to do good, since my system does make nice results, I'm unable to keep it.
I've decided to read "Come Into My Trading Room" again, which is a great book about trading method, money management and pshycology, I'm now seeing how many mistakes I've repeatedly made, and start get discipline again, Today I logged all of my trades, and finally there were few of them, so I wasn't overtrading like friday where I put about 40 trades one day (commission will eat me eventually if I won't change).
Here are the trades of today, hope it teaches you guys some stuff, because it sure did teach me that my rule about setting stop win at +5 points in YM after I'm up 10 points is crutial for times were market is moving sideways at times.





Just to note that I will not trade the first one and a half hours for now since I want to know the direction and theme of the day before I enter a trade, today for example YM seem to pull the market up, and today I wasn't home most of the time anyways so I took such a little amount of trades.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Bad Day..

I've heavily over traded today.. that caused me losing 382$ after commission today, at least it's not like on the days I started trading 2 contracts and lost 600$ hehe.

I traded 18 times, which is way too many for the signals that I really had, after the day finished I paper trade and had only 5 trades, I must work on my patience or I'll keep have days like today.
This is how I should have traded today:



The First trade I should have taken at 10:55, long YM 14073 after the resistance had been broken, and with my trade management rules I should have lost 10 points on this trade.


-You can see the trades in the image I attached.

The Second trade should have taken at 11:15, short YM 14065 after breaking the lower trend line, this is again another loser, 10 points.

Remember, my trade management rules are: exit a trade on the break of the current trend, so if I was following the trade down, I let it go down 9 points, on the 10th I stop loss, and if the stock have been going my way, I cover the short the minute it breaks the downtrend up, and another trade management rule I added is: after I'm on a 10 points gain, I automatically put a stop WIN on +5 points, so I won't lose money on sideways going markets.
Till now things seem rough, it seems like I'm losing money huh? watch the following trades:

Next trade (Third) should take place at 12:15, Short YM 14063, it goes all the way to 14045, but it still doesn't enough for me to close the position, this trade is closed at 12:40 on +5 points, just before the market flip on me.
The Fourth trade takes place at 13:35, long YM 14074, the market formed an uptrend, and the resistance had been broken, so I follow the trend until it breaks down at 14085, and get +11 points.
The Fifth and last trade takes place at 15:10 and is short after I close the last long position at 14085, short at about YM 14082, until about the end of the day, which gives me about +27 points.
Combined I get +23 on the day, it's a slow day but still not like the 382$ I lost..
Hope I explained my trading method, tell me if it's not clear enough.
Have a nice day.

Monday, July 16, 2007

Finally starting to pay off my tuition

Well I've got to admit, I had another profitable day, and it feels great! I'm up 190$ net on YM today, and things starting to feel right again.

I started the day going +135$, and then went down to +20$ after 3 bad trades, but I kept doing my best, not letting any good trade lose me money, and kept my stop loss the way I wanted, and it basically have been another good day.

I think that I pretty much understand how to make money in a days where the market does moves like today, Mini-sized dow (YM) moved about 130 points up and down intraday, and I took 54 net home, which doesn't seem so good, but it is for me since I want to make only 32 points a day average.

A mistake I didn't do today was not leaving a trade without a stop when you go to eat, at one point I was +12 points on a trade, and wanted to go to eat, so I just put a +5 points stop win and went to eat, a little reminder, this kind of behavior had cost me about 2000$ one day, when I was on 2 YM contracts and went eating pizza.

My profit / loss now is -23.9% since I started day trading Futures, and I finally start paying off my tuition which cost me so heavily (more than 4K$).

Saturday, July 14, 2007

Finally, losing day is not so big.

Friday I was -130$ on the money, and It's good, finally I didn't make stupid mistakes, didn't risk more money than I could have won, and waited with discipline for trades.

I realized that on days like Friday, where the market is almost not moving, it is hard to make money future trading, but after the market closed I paper trade it and saw that my method of waiting for 10 points gain, and if it happens moving the stop loss to +5 points, which means preserving profit, brought me +30 points on the day, I should always use it, but anyways it has been a good day as far as following my trading plan, and that's what matters.

My trading is developing rapidly, and I know that soon I'll be making money since in the long run, my method is working, I should just follow it, and wait for days like thursday where I extracted 60 points from the dow jones.

Have a good weekend and good bye for now.

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Yet, another good day

I'm up 276$ on the day (after commission), and I hope it stays this way.

What I did today was just following the bigger trend, instead of fighting to understand where the market is going in the next couple of minutes, I started going with the flow, and I really got in sync with the market, today I had a very good discipline, my stops were reasonable, I didn't get away from the computer without having a stop loss market order in my broker, and it saved me once.

I had to go help out my dad for a couple of minutes, so I put a stop loss in the broker, and when I came back I saw that I lost Internet connection, and when the Internet did work I saw that YM was down 20 points from where I entered, but my stop loss was 5 points above my entry (what we call stop win:), so I managed to earn money while not even watching the computer, I really believe that I'm developing in my trading every day.

Today I had 90% winners, which is usual for days that have certain main trend, I just join the market on the move and watch my profits run, +60 points on the day is very good for me, my goal is to get +32 a day average, so when my account grow I'll just add to my quantity, which is now 1 since my account size is so small, I'm not trying to reach the sky, but getting 32 points a day can be achieved in 2 hours of work.

On the personal side, I've just had a nice BBQ with my friends and it was really fun watching them all on my birth day, I think this is going to be my best b-day yet :)

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

It's my birthday!!

Today is my birthday, and I finally grow up in age, and mentally as well, I'm 23, and I'm happy : )



Last two days have been bad, I've repeated my old mistakes, and I glad to say that I think I found the reason.. It's something in me that I have to change, I'm changing it lately but it's still there.



You know it when you drive you car, and the other driver doesn't let you pass? so after you do pass him, you start rushing ahead "making up" for the lost seconds of when the other driver didn't let you pass? well.. maybe you guys aren't like me, but I'm one hell of an impatient guy, I can't wait a second, since I was a little kid I wanted it all here and now.



Now it's time to change, being a day trader require some core characters, for example diligence, you must see the light at the end of the tunnel, positive thinking, you must believe you will make it, self dicipline, you must be able to put your stops on the right place, these and more the the required day trader's characters.



But the one I lack most is "Patiance", this is the key element I lack, today I took 3 "Home run" trades, each given me about 120$ gain on 1 YM contract, and I still didn't finish the day green.

I've made so many "rush trades" that came without any real trigger, I was just simply bored.. and thought I'm right, this what got me to lose money the last few days, from now on I promis myself, I'll be more patiance, I will trade only on real trigger, and not a "revenge scalp trades" which I made, yesterday I even rise my quantity to 2 contracts so it made my losses bigger, I think after making the same mistakes twice, I learned my lesson, at least I hope I do, because this tuition becomes very expensive.



I still think positive, and know I'll make it trading, but I see that I still have a lot to learn, good bye for now

Monday, July 9, 2007

Today -150$



I've had a bad day today, looking at the day I made only about 3 mistake trades out of 14 trades, which makes me think I improved, but still I'm not exceeding my expectations, which is trade my method and always make money.





The mistakes today consisted of not following my method, which manifests itself as one of the trades I took, was after the trend line broke down, I took a long position to try and stay with the current uptrend, and that was a mistake, my trading style says that after a trend line is broken, I sell the current position and short / buy long to the opposite direction.


Right after mistake #1 I took a short too low, which I then decided to stop before it hit my stop loss (-10 points), and the trend kept going down right after I covered my short, it seems like one mistake leads to the next, tomorrow I'll try to avoid both.





This is how the market looked today :



My method, in paper trade, produced only 9 points today, which is unusual to my method, because usually it produce at least 25 points, I guess it's just happened to be a day where the market didn't move so much, and deceived my method a lot (false breakout of trends etc.).
My method usually means going with the current trend, get in sync with the market, and when it catches the market, it should make me nice profits.

Saturday, July 7, 2007

Method update:

I'm changing a bit my trading method, I've tested a new rule and it will help me earn money in days where the market is going a bit sideways at times, tested on friday I could of gotten 52 points with 15 trades all day.

It goes like this :

As usual I buy and sell on support and resistance, if I'm riding a trend and he is breaking I'm just quiting with the profit of the trend.

1. Stop loss stays at -10 points.

2. Profit taking is the following :

A. The usual trend breaking profit taking (Ex. YM went from 13517 to 13526, and then the trend broke down at 13524 and I take 7 points profit).

B. And this is the improvement, If I'm at 10 points gain, and the market goes against me, I take 5 points gain home, and if the market keep going my way I buy back 10 points more than my entry. I'll explain it with screen shots of trades the following days.

Friday, July 6, 2007

Having a bad week.

This week I think I went -681$ overall, which is the exact opposite of what I intended to do, there are a few reasons why and I would like to tell you what I have learnt from this week:

1. Don't scalp in futures trading, the commissions will eat you alive.

2. Keep your stop loss, if you don't you get to a point of losing 20 dollars here, 20 dollars there, and then you "scalping" your way to losing money, what happened to me this week is that I went out of trades before my stop loss have been met, on false alerts, while the market was going sideways, I lost a lot of money trying to join the next market move.

3. Keep the method simple, buy on breakout of resistance, or in a forming trend, don't guess the market next 2 minutes trend, just go with the flow, I could have gotten 30 points Friday without a sweat, but instead I just scalp my way up, which means I took about 19 points, maybe less including commissions.

4. Don't ever set unrealistic goals, like 500$ a day (on 1 contract), just because you feel like that, because it will cause what happened to me Friday, which is averaging up (buying another contract on the top of the trend), and then when Dow went down few points, all of my profit was lost due to the other contract, basically don't trading more than you can handle to lose, for me 2 contracts is too much for you now, and it caused me coming from a profit of 150$, to losing 130$ Friday.

I hope it will help me form somewhat of a trading rules in futures trading, learning from mistakes is the best way to evolve as a day trader, and I would like to help you guys learn from my mistakes.

Have a great week end!